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 The death
of King Fahd of Saudi Arabia and the announcement that
Crown Prince Abdullah will succeed him is unlikely to have
any immediate impact on the desert kingdom's relations with
Israel, according to academic and diplomatic assessments in
Jerusalem.
According to the Foreign Ministry, since Abdullah had been
leading Saudi Arabia for all intents and purposes since King
Fahd suffered a stroke in 1995, the country's hostile policy
is unlikely to change – either for better or for worse.
While Abdullah's succession to the throne is expected to go
smoothly, there is concern that – since he is 82 and new
Crown Prince Sultan is 81 – Saudi Arabia could now face a
period in which one ruler would quickly succeed another,
bringing uncertainty and instability. The concern is of a
situation similar to that which faced the Soviet Union in the
mid-1980s, when Leonid Brezhnev died in 1982 and was
succeeded by Yuri Andropov, who died less than two years
later and was in turn followed by Konstantin Chernenko, who
died just over a year after that.
Abdullah was behind the 2002 Arab peace initiative that
called for a full Israeli withdrawal to the pre-1967 lines
and establishment of a Palestinian state with east Jerusalem
as its capital in exchange for an end to the "Arab-Israeli
conflict" and the establishment of "normal relations" with
Israel. That plan withered after running into Israeli
opposition, which did not see anything new in it and was
underwhelmed by a promise of normal ties, rather than a
normalization of ties, and a general lack of enthusiasm from
Washington.
Joshua Teitelbaum, a senior research fellow at Tel Aviv
University's Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African
Studies who specializes in Saudi Arabia, said Abdullah might
feel that as king he would have a bit more maneuverability to
push the initiative further.
At the same time, he said this is unlikely in the near
future, because Abdullah would want to wait to see how the
disengagement process progressed, before expending any energy
in a diplomatic initiative.
Furthermore, Teitelbaum said that with all the internal Saudi
problems, Abdullah would likely continue to focus on internal
Saudi issues and not begin to focus on issues beyond his
borders.
"Israel is not the main issue here, the main issue is
internal stability – rampant unemployment, the young
generation, terrorism, Islamic fundamentalism," he said.
Elie Podeh, head of the Hebrew University's Middle East
Department, agreed that Fahd's death would be "insignificant"
for Israel.
He said that Abdullah would be too preoccupied with worrying
about the royal family's stability – balancing the need to
fight Islamic fundamentalism with satisfying calls from the
US and elsewhere for democratic reform – to have the time and
energy to devote to the diplomatic process.
At the same time, he said that Israel should consider issuing
a statement marking Fahd's death, combining condolences to
the Saudi people with a welcome to Abdullah and a call to
move forward on the peace process.
"This couldn't hurt," Podeh said, although he
added that he didn't have any illusions that such a statement
would generate much of a resonance in Riyadh.
A Foreign Ministry spokesman said that Israel had no plans
for issuing any such statement.
This statement might be difficult for Jerusalem, considering
Fahd's long record of hostility. In 1980, Fahd responded to
the Knesset law affirming Jerusalem as Israel's capital by
declaring a jihad "to protect the Holy City against Zionist
aggression."
Likewise, in April 2002, after Israel launched Operation
Defensive Shield, he was quoted as telling the Saudi cabinet
that "Israel's continued daily massacres and aggressions in
the occupied Palestinian territories, killing of innocents,
hiding corpses and demolishing the Palestinian camps, reveal
its unwillingness to abide by the will of the international
community and its persistence to exterminate the Palestinian
people in a flagrant defiance of the simplest human rights
principles and international legitimacy resolutions."
At the same time, Fahd will be remembered here as the author
of an eight-point diplomatic initiative that hinted at
recognition of Israel's right to exist.
In August 1981, a year before assuming the throne, Fahd
proposed a peace plan that called on Israel to completely
withdraw to the 1967 borders, affirmed the "right of the
Palestinian people to return to their homes" and called for
an independent Palestinian state with east Jerusalem as it
capital. The one new element in the plan was clause seven,
which read that "all states in the region should be able to
live in peace."
This was interpreted by some, including some Arab states, as
an implicit recognition of Israel's right to exist –
precisely the reason the plan was torpedoed later in the year
at an Arab summit in Fez.
A year later the plan was adopted, with the "problematic"
clause being replaced by another watered-down clause that
stated that the UN Security Council should draw up
"guarantees for peace for all the states of the region,
including the independent Palestinian state."
Like Abdullah's peace plan 20 years later, which was
motivated in no small degree by a Saudi desire to improve its
image in the US after the involvement of 15 Saudi nationals
in the September 11 attacks, Fahd was also widely believed to
have had the US in mind when he drew up his plan. At the time
the US was considering approval of the sale of AWACS and F-15
equipment to Riyadh. Like Abdullah's plan, Fahd's initiative
also withered and died because of a distinct lack of Israeli
and American interest in a plan widely dismissed in both
capital as "more of the same."
Flags on government buildings were today being flown at
half-mast to mark the death of Saudi Arabia's King Fahd.
The king, who was in his 80's, died on Monday. He had been in
hospital since the end of May when he was admitted with acute
pneumonia.
He will be succeeded as monarch by Crown Prince Abdullah, who
has been running day-to-day affairs since a stroke
debilitated the king in 1995.
Prime Minister Helen Clark said today flags would be flown at
half mast to mark the king's death.
She is sending condolences to the people of Saudi Arabia on
New Zealand's behalf.
King Fahd is to buried in an unmarked and simple grave in
keeping with Saudi Arabia's Islamic tradition.
Western leaders and dignitaries, including Britain's Prince
Charles, will attend the funeral service.
It has yet to be decided who will represent New Zealand at
the service for the king but given the timing of the event,
it appears likely a diplomat will attend.
King Fahd's condolence service was scheduled for August 3-4.
Miss Clark said King Fahd was the custodian of two holy
mosques, so occupied a unique position of trust and
guardianship not only for his own people but for Muslims the
world over.
"As a ruler he oversaw a period of growth and development
which transformed the Saudi economy and made Saudi Arabia's
influence felt throughout the region. His death is a sad loss
particularly to his family and his people."
New Zealand's bilateral trading relationship with Saudi
Arabia was worth half a billion dollars. Saudi Arabia was a
significant market for New Zealand dairy and sheepmeat
exports, and was a major supplier of oil. New linkages based
on educational and other people-to-people exchanges were also
growing.
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